Only 1% of provisional drivers assumed will use M-way |
20% of drivers provisional |
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At the Oral Hearing into the proposed toll scheme on on the M4 Kinnegad-Enfield-Kilcock Motorway on Monday August 27th 2001, the issue of provisional drivers was discussed in evidence by Mr. MacNicholas for the NRA. The following is a simplification and analysis of the evidence. About 20% of drivers on the road are provisional licence holders. If the M4 were toll free it would seem reasonable that 20% of the drivers on it would therefore be provisional licence holders, assuming for a moment that it were legal for them to drive on a motorway. Now if you apply motorway legislation however, none of these drivers are allowed to drive on the motorway. So 20% of passenger car income is lost, a loss that could jeopardise the very viability of the PPP concept for the project. So how is this difficulty overcome by the NRA?. A report produced in evidence at the hearing entitled "Traffic Surveys and Analysis" deftly deals with the issue. At the bottom of page 8, the report states that... "after a detailed investigation of the matter, which included a survey on the N4, the real effect is expected to be nothing like this figure. A value of 1% was taken to be the appropriate loss of traffic based on the survey." We at CaST do not understand this line of reasoning and have written to the NRA for all supporting information and calculations with reference to the 'detailed investigation' referred to.
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